Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Rome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roman Strategy game?

Strategy + Rome

Of 32 developers who shipped a Roman Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1200 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 52 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 52 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Rome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $450 → $15k → $7.2k → $64k → $72k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Rome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Median $16k (exactly $16,189)
Top 25% $216k (exactly $215,784)
Top 5% $753k (exactly $753,448)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 123
Announced 52
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Rome
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, City Builder
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 17,774 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
Shieldwall older $17.99 7,148 86% 214k $3.9M (exactly $3,857,776) Nezon Production
Total War: PHARAOH older $29.99 3,622 63% 109k $3.3M (exactly $3,258,713) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY
Warlord: Britannia older $19.99 1,890 88% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,133,433) Darkmatter Games
Citadelum $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) Abylight Barcelona
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Roman Triumph: Survival City Builder $24.99 742 83% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) Coreffect Interactive
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Pax Augusta $24.99 564 69% 17k $423k (exactly $422,831) Roger Gassmann
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
Gods of Sand $9.99 720 86% 22k $216k (exactly $215,784) Achenar Studios
Summa Expeditionis $19.99 305 68% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Lobico Games
Strategos · EA $24.99 233 85% 7.0k $175k (exactly $174,680) Strategos Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.