Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Strategy game?

Strategy + Romance

Of 109 developers who shipped a Romance Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 176 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $510; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1322 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 176 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 176 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 109
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $9.2k → $32k → $46k → $12k → $10k → $599 (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 109
Bottom 30% $505 (exactly $505)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,375)
Top 5% $830k (exactly $830,146)
Developers, 2 yr 109
Released games 416
Announced 176
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, RPG, Visual Novel
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 279,244 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $510, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $510. 6 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 176 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
The Sims™ 3 older $19.99 31,071 85% 932k $19M (exactly $18,633,279) The Sims Studio, Maxis
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Rebooted Fate $14.99 1,846 95% 55k $830k (exactly $830,146) Jilin miaomiao, 山与海工作室
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
不心动才有鬼 $6.99 1,482 96% 44k $311k (exactly $310,775) SP Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.