Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Shoot 'Em Up?

Rhythm + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 22 developers who shipped a Rhythm Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $25k, ×54 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 35 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $58k → $1.0k → $748 → $716 → $297 → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $716 (exactly $716)
Top 25% $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 5% $26k (exactly $25,774)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 98
Announced 35
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Rhythm, Shoot 'Em Up; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 755 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beat Hazard older $9.99 5,072 95% 152k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,078) Cold Beam Games
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
Beat Hazard 2 older $18.99 1,396 89% 42k $795k (exactly $795,301) Cold Beam Games
Beat Hazard 3 older $19.99 586 84% 18k $351k (exactly $351,424) Cold Beam Games
Drums Rock older $19.99 402 88% 12k $241k (exactly $241,079) Garage51
Arrest of a stone Buddha older $14.99 400 69% 12k $180k (exactly $179,880) yeo
Soundodger+ older $7.99 676 90% 20k $162k (exactly $162,037) Studio Bean
Symphony older $4.99 833 86% 25k $125k (exactly $124,700) Empty Clip Studios
Holodance older $19.99 201 85% 6.0k $121k (exactly $120,540) narayana games UG
Waveform older $1.99 1,878 83% 56k $112k (exactly $112,117) Eden Industries
Rhythm Witch: Beat Death $5.99 508 94% 15k $91k (exactly $91,288) Dusklight CO., LTD.
Rhythm Storm $9.99 86 91% 2.6k $26k (exactly $25,774) Radiangames
HyperCore : Rhythm Bullet Hell $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Gameinaframe
Beats Of Fury $9.99 30 76% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Bubble Head Games
PopSlinger Vol. 2 - Loveless $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Funky Can Creative
CYBERSLAYER: No Time to Regret $4.99 25 92% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) KAEV Games
VILOVEJETS $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Polka Studio
Legend of Shawy Cat: Mafia Prepack $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) 86岁按时吃饭
Heartbeats $3.99 17 94% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) First Impact Studio
MEMOLOGY: ESCAPE OF MEMES $0.99 35 91% 1.1k $1.0k (exactly $1,040) Gamesforfarm, Piece Of Voxel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.