Do I ship it?

Games › Rhythm › Rhythm + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Roguelike?

Rhythm + Roguelike

Of 34 developers who shipped a Rhythm Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×256 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 64 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 64 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $48k → $11k → $150 → $3.6k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 5% $122k (exactly $121,678)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 84
Announced 64
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Rhythm, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Stylized, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 4,684 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crypt of the NecroDancer 2015 · $11M BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE 2020 · $5.8M Ratatan 2025 · EA · $1.8M ROBOBEAT 2024 · $1.0M Beat Hazard 3 2024 · $351k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crypt of the NecroDancer older $14.99 23,593 95% 708k $11M (exactly $10,609,772) Brace Yourself Games
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
Ratatan · EA $24.99 2,449 85% 73k $1.8M (exactly $1,836,015) TVT Co. Ltd., Ratata Arts
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
Beat Hazard 3 older $19.99 586 84% 18k $351k (exactly $351,424) Cold Beam Games
Rhythm Fighter older $14.99 380 80% 11k $171k (exactly $170,886) echo games
Beat Blast older $10.99 387 89% 12k $128k (exactly $127,594) Woolly Walrus Games
Archons $9.99 406 92% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) BulletHell Studios
Q REMASTERED older $8.99 423 82% 13k $114k (exactly $114,083) liica, Inc.
ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson
Rhythm Witch: Beat Death $5.99 508 94% 15k $91k (exactly $91,288) Dusklight CO., LTD.
Wardrum $24.99 87 86% 2.6k $65k (exactly $65,224) Mopeful Games
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
Typing Break $8.99 96 80% 2.9k $26k (exactly $25,891) Tholus
Rhythm Storm $9.99 86 91% 2.6k $26k (exactly $25,774) Radiangames
Soulbound Roguelike $9.99 34 82% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) DuDu Games
KILLBEAT $9.99 24 100% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Kalma Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.