Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Strategy game?

Strategy + Puzzle

Of 1,642 developers who shipped a Puzzle Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,874 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 971 developers shipped in the last year and 1,874 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,874 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,642
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $839 → $898 → $537 → $748 → $505 → $449 → $419 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,642
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 5% $77k (exactly $76,723)
Developers, 2 yr 1,642
Released games 6,015
Announced 1,874
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Logic, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 147,883 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $76k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 930 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,874 games are announced against 971 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Hello Neighbor older $29.99 26,329 87% 790k $24M (exactly $23,688,201) Dynamic Pixels
Papers, Please older $9.99 73,406 97% 2.2M $22M (exactly $21,999,778) Lucas Pope
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Plants vs. Zombies GOTY Edition older $4.99 143,506 97% 4.3M $21M (exactly $21,482,848) PopCap Games, Inc.
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
The Escapists 2 older $19.99 26,452 90% 794k $16M (exactly $15,863,264) Team17, Mouldy Toof Studios
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Liar's Bar · EA $6.99 48,708 89% 1.5M $10M (exactly $10,214,068) Curve Animation
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Gunsmith Simulator $24.99 3,165 84% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) GameHunters

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.