Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Puzzle

Of 66 developers who shipped a Puzzle Rhythm game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $58k, ×124 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 71 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 71 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $31k → $599 → $1.4k → $446 → $299 → $599 (still earning) → $653 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $537 (exactly $537)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $58,911)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 225
Announced 71
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Rhythm, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 1,896 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Melatonin older $14.99 7,554 94% 227k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,034) Half Asleep
AudioSurf older $9.99 8,901 95% 267k $2.7M (exactly $2,667,630) Dylan Fitterer
Audiosurf 2 older $14.99 5,364 82% 161k $2.4M (exactly $2,412,191) Dylan Fitterer
DEEMO -Reborn- older $24.99 3,188 87% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,044) Rayark International Limited
Super Hexagon older $2.99 18,371 97% 551k $1.6M (exactly $1,647,879) Terry Cavanagh
FIGHT KNIGHT older $19.99 1,547 91% 46k $928k (exactly $927,736) Team Sorcerobe
Slash It older $39.99 767 88% 23k $920k (exactly $920,170) EGAMER
The Jackbox Party Pack 10 older $29.99 500 65% 15k $450k (exactly $449,850) Jackbox Games, Inc.
One Hand Clapping older $14.99 877 84% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Bad Dream Games
Zup! X older $1.99 6,480 96% 194k $387k (exactly $386,856) Quiet River
Metro Gravity $12.99 852 92% 26k $332k (exactly $332,024) mrkogamedev
30 Birds $17.99 138 96% 4.1k $74k (exactly $74,479) RAM RAM Games, Business Goose Studios
A Chamber of Stars $14.99 153 99% 4.6k $69k (exactly $68,804) Erik Sheader-Smith, Equation Feeder Gam… (Erik Sheader-Smith, Equation Feeder Games)
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
GRIDbeat! $19.99 93 100% 2.8k $56k (exactly $55,772) Ridiculous Games
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
Home $7.99 124 100% 3.7k $30k (exactly $29,723) Mr.Spoon
Puppergeist $4.99 156 95% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,353) Serenity Forge
DGGWare $8.99 66 93% 2.0k $18k (exactly $17,800) Silkworm
Skullbreaker $29.99 13 92% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Sharkgame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.