Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Psychological Horror

Only 17 developers shipped a Psychological-Horror Rhythm game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×5.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×4264 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 24 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $2.9k → $1.5k → $12k → $106k → $3.1k → $1.1k (still earning) → $653 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,601)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,804)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 62
Announced 24
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Rhythm; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Surreal, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 6,820 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 3 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
Muse Dash older $2.99 112,437 91% 3.4M $10M (exactly $10,085,599) peropero
Thumper older $19.99 4,056 91% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,432,383) Drool
Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis $16.99 3,974 91% 119k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548) Alliance Arts, WHO YOU
Symphonic Rain older $39.99 1,114 97% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,466) KOGADO STUDIO
Incredibox older $4.99 5,633 96% 169k $843k (exactly $843,260) So Far So Good
Zup! X older $1.99 6,480 96% 194k $387k (exactly $386,856) Quiet River
Metro Gravity $12.99 852 92% 26k $332k (exactly $332,024) mrkogamedev
ADEN $8.99 670 96% 20k $181k (exactly $180,699) takayakata
ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson
A Chamber of Stars $14.99 153 99% 4.6k $69k (exactly $68,804) Erik Sheader-Smith, Equation Feeder Gam… (Erik Sheader-Smith, Equation Feeder Games)
Lover's Enigma $11.99 98 87% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) FallenCranberry Studio
This Curse Is Metal as Hell! | Kusodeka Bayashi $2.99 138 98% 4.1k $12k (exactly $12,379) HAZECODE
Remote Control $12.99 8 25% 240 $3.1k (exactly $3,118) eroG Interactive
Clapism $2.99 29 86% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Woodpile
Relapse $7.99 10 90% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Hexatunes

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.