Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Strategy game?

Strategy + Programming

Of 96 developers who shipped a Programming Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 148 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×455 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 148 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 250% on the market, 148 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $5.5k → $3.3k → $2.2k → $1.8k → $2.4k → $4.5k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,738)
Top 5% $286k (exactly $286,009)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 231
Announced 148
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Programming; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Automation, Puzzle
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 15,777 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 148 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baba Is You older $14.99 21,011 97% 630k $9.4M (exactly $9,448,647) Hempuli Oy
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Autonauts older $19.99 3,596 90% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,156,521) Denki
Desynced $29.99 1,879 79% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Stage Games Inc.
Mad Games Tycoon older $14.99 3,700 91% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,663,890) Eggcode
Duskers older $19.99 2,304 90% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,709) Misfits Attic
Infinifactory older $24.99 1,790 95% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,341,963) Zachtronics
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
HackHub - Ultimate Hacker Simulator $16.99 937 88% 28k $478k (exactly $477,589) HotBunny
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Data Center $8.99 916 76% 27k $247k (exactly $247,045) Waseku
JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator $17.99 378 76% 11k $204k (exactly $204,007) Prof. Scherer
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.