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Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Walking Simulator?
Walking Simulator + Post-apocalyptic
Of 66 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×746 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 109 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,647) |
| Top 25% | $6.9k (exactly $6,920) |
| Top 5% | $469k (exactly $468,744) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 66 |
| Released games | 202 |
| Announced | 109 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Walking Simulator
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Post-apocalyptic
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Walking Simulator; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 25,485 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Walking Simulator with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WarFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + ThrillerFair
- + MusicFair
- + SupernaturalFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + NoirFair
Comparable games
A Plague Tale: Innocence 2019 · $76M 
The Long Dark 2017 · $66M 
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT 2022 · $60M 
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH 2026 · $32M 
Miscreated 2018 · $21M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | A Plague Tale: Innocence | older | $39.99 | 63,166 93% | 1.9M | $76M (exactly $75,780,250) | Asobo Studio |
| | The Long Dark | older | $19.99 | 110,264 89% | 3.3M | $66M (exactly $66,125,321) | Hinterland Studio Inc. |
| | DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT | older | $39.99 | 49,837 91% | 1.5M | $60M (exactly $59,789,449) | KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS |
| | DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH | $69.99 | 15,434 94% | 463k | $32M (exactly $32,406,770) | KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software | |
| | Miscreated | older | $29.99 | 23,050 66% | 692k | $21M (exactly $20,738,085) | Entrada Interactive LLC |
 | The Talos Principle 2 | older | $29.99 | 12,478 94% | 374k | $11M (exactly $11,226,457) | Croteam |
 | 1000xRESIST | older | $19.99 | 5,310 96% | 159k | $3.2M (exactly $3,184,407) | sunset visitor 斜陽過客 |
 | Submerged | older | $19.99 | 4,328 75% | 130k | $2.6M (exactly $2,595,502) | Uppercut Games Pty Ltd |
 | A Quiet Place: The Road Ahead | $29.99 | 2,331 74% | 70k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,201) | Stormind Games | |
 | ZED ZONE | · EA older | $11.99 | 3,506 81% | 105k | $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) | Leven Liu |
 | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
 | Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 | $29.99 | 521 86% | 16k | $469k (exactly $468,744) | Digixart | |
 | The Inn-Sanity | $7.99 | 1,561 96% | 47k | $374k (exactly $374,172) | Steppe Hare Studio | |
 | Necrophosis | $15.99 | 722 89% | 22k | $346k (exactly $346,343) | Dragonis Ares, Adonis Brosteanu | |
 | nophenia | $4.99 | 1,547 96% | 46k | $232k (exactly $231,586) | lane | |
 | Once Alive | $11.99 | 415 82% | 12k | $149k (exactly $149,276) | Cem Boray Yıldırım | |
 | SLEEP AWAKE | $29.99 | 164 71% | 4.9k | $148k (exactly $147,551) | EYES OUT, LLC. | |
 | Project: Mist | · EA | $17.99 | 257 72% | 7.7k | $139k (exactly $138,703) | Chicken Launcher |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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