Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Post-apocalyptic

Only 13 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Rhythm game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ultimate Drummer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Revenue is up 215% on the market; 15 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 215% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $12k → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,194)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $30,549)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 33
Announced 15
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 215% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Rhythm
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 94% positive over 307 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $30k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pistol Whip older $29.99 3,586 94% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,226,324) Cloudhead Games Ltd.
Touhou Danmaku Kagura Phantasia Lost older $19.99 2,266 81% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,358,920) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
DESTRUCTURE: Among Debris older $9.99 158 90% 4.7k $47k (exactly $47,353) Team Instant Defeat
Chair F*cking Simulator older $1.99 774 95% 23k $46k (exactly $46,208) SoSorrySoft
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
Band Space $19.99 46 78% 1.4k $28k (exactly $27,586) Smartmelon Games
Antro $14.99 42 92% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Gatera Studio
Future Racer 2000 older $4.99 111 92% 3.3k $17k (exactly $16,617) Tim Oxton
Hailing from the Abyss older $4.99 80 70% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,976) Jiwoo Lee, VIA Studio (Visual Interacti… (Jiwoo Lee, VIA Studio (Visual Interactive Arts))
ARIE: Moonprayer $16.99 20 95% 600 $10k (exactly $10,194) PhantomWorks
RAGER $19.99 16 100% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Insane Prey
Big Band Survivors $4.99 7 85% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Moontrail Games
Zombiemachia $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Kornux Games
Survivors SymphonYs $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Surfin Bird
Final 4 Survival $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Sean Foley
Zombie Overdrive $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Neton Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.