Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Strategy game?

Strategy + Mystery Dungeon

Of 99 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×208 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 134 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 134 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 99
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $748 → $1.5k → $2.0k → $450 → $269 → $719 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 99
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,089)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $130,636)
Developers, 2 yr 99
Released games 274
Announced 134
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Dungeon Crawler, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 4,606 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $480, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ENDLESS Dungeon™ - Definitive Edition older $14.99 2,953 64% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,964) AMPLITUDE Studios
Vivid Knight older $14.99 1,635 89% 49k $735k (exactly $735,260) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Dungeon Drafters older $24.99 563 76% 17k $422k (exactly $422,081) Manalith Studios
The Fall of the Dungeon Guardians - Enhanced Edition older $19.99 625 83% 19k $375k (exactly $374,812) Mana Games
Loop Queen-Escape Dungeon 3 older $19.99 611 84% 18k $366k (exactly $366,417) Hide Games
Vivid World $19.99 591 88% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Escape Dungeon older $12.99 817 79% 25k $318k (exactly $318,385) Hide Games
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle
Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure 2 older $24.99 342 89% 10k $256k (exactly $256,397) NEKOTOKAGE GAMES
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Legacy of Defense $7.99 545 72% 16k $131k (exactly $130,636) Enter the Game Studios
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Death end re;Quest: Code Z $39.99 58 72% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
Shana - Priestess of Tona $9.99 190 74% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Lustration Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.