Do I ship it?

Games › Word Game › Word Game + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Word Game?

Word Game + Mystery

Of 101 developers who shipped a Mystery Word Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 149 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×536 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 149 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 149 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Word Game + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $7.2k → $14k → $2.1k → $4.2k → $7.3k → $1.9k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Word Game + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,887)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,333)
Top 5% $255k (exactly $254,721)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 243
Announced 149
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Word Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Visual Novel
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Text-Based
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 25,057 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 149 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Word Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  2. + TacticalFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  3. + Point & ClickFair60 devs · median $1.6k · 56 announced
  4. + LootFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 8 announced
  5. + AutomationFair12 devs · median $1.6k · 11 announced
  6. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  7. + DetectiveFair82 devs · median $1.3k · 90 announced
  8. + Procedural GenerationFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair18 devs · median $1.2k · 16 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair29 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced
  11. + IncrementalFair91 devs · median $1.2k · 77 announced
  12. + NatureFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 8 announced

All 98 pairs on the Word Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Chants of Sennaar 2023 · $18M The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty 2024 · $15M Cyber Manhunt 2021 · $4.4M The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall 2026 · $3.0M Lay a Beauty to Rest: The Darkness Peach Blossom Spring 2021 · $2.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chants of Sennaar older $19.99 30,416 98% 912k $18M (exactly $18,240,475) Rundisc
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Cyber Manhunt older $9.99 14,520 92% 436k $4.4M (exactly $4,351,644) Aluba Van+
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Lay a Beauty to Rest: The Darkness Peach Blossom Spring older $13.99 6,310 95% 189k $2.6M (exactly $2,648,307) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
The Séance of Blake Manor $19.99 3,683 95% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) Spooky Doorway
WILL: A Wonderful World / WILL：美好世界 older $14.99 4,588 92% 138k $2.1M (exactly $2,063,224) WMY Studio
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
CaseCracker older $9.99 3,314 89% 99k $993k (exactly $993,206) BlackRobe
Misty Judgment $8.99 1,170 92% 35k $316k (exactly $315,549) 次元边界
Cellveillance $15.99 531 85% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Stiff Neck $6.99 955 81% 29k $200k (exactly $200,264) 伤官制作组 Team Uranian
纸上的魔法使 $29.99 213 89% 6.4k $192k (exactly $191,636) UGUISUKAGURA
女儿国的诅咒 The Curse of Womanland $9.99 501 96% 15k $150k (exactly $150,150) 符离游戏（FuliGames）
CaseCracker3 $12.99 359 84% 11k $140k (exactly $139,902) BlackRobe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.