Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Strategy game?

Strategy + Metroidvania

Only 18 developers shipped a Metroidvania Strategy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×1172 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 40 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60 → $12k → $3.8k → $3.0k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,281)
Top 5% $736k (exactly $736,220)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 69
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Metroidvania; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry 2D Platformer, Action, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Retro, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 3,002 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $9.2k, 1 in 20 over $730k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Sanctuary older $19.99 10,416 91% 312k $6.2M (exactly $6,246,475) moi rai games
Eastern Exorcist older $17.99 6,099 84% 183k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,630) Wildfire Game(无锡野火数字科技有限公司)
Isles of Sea and Sky older $19.99 1,538 91% 46k $922k (exactly $922,339) Cicada Games
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
3dSen PC $14.99 524 91% 16k $236k (exactly $235,643) Geod Studio
A Valley Without Wind 2 older $14.99 112 48% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Arcen Games
Control Craft 2 older $4.99 274 72% 8.2k $41k (exactly $41,018) Cristian Manolachi, Atomic Fabrik
Control Craft 3 older $4.99 235 73% 7.1k $35k (exactly $35,180) Cristian Manolachi, Atomic Fabrik
Barbarian Souls older $14.99 64 37% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Sabrina Aridi
face the immortal · EA $17.99 41 92% 1.2k $22k (exactly $22,128) DY
HOMESICKNESS $5.99 64 92% 1.9k $12k (exactly $11,501) jnity, celesware
CorgiSpace $4.99 62 96% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) Adam Saltsman
Just Move Fall Dungeon Endless Abyss $15.99 8 50% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) daminggede
SEBI 16 $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Sebastian Lind
方块 Block $2.99 33 93% 990 $3.0k (exactly $2,960) GlanielStudio
Guess the Flag! $3.99 16 93% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) Source Byte
白色归途 $3.99 8 100% 240 $958 (exactly $958) M芒果ngo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.