Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Strategy game?

Strategy + Medieval

Of 907 developers who shipped a Medieval Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,651 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×698 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,651 games are announced against 537 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,651 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 907
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $3.5k → $1.7k → $1.6k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $899 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 907
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,518)
Top 5% $438k (exactly $438,458)
Developers, 2 yr 907
Released games 2,291
Announced 1,651
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Resource Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 132,906 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 435 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,651 games are announced against 537 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ older $49.99 87,777 88% 2.6M $132M (exactly $131,639,167) Monolith Productions
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Mount & Blade: Warband older $19.99 135,425 97% 4.1M $81M (exactly $81,214,372) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition older $34.99 37,093 84% 1.1M $39M (exactly $38,936,522) World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten… (World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten Empires)
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Thronefall $12.99 22,966 96% 689k $8.9M (exactly $8,949,850) GrizzlyGames, Mythwright
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 $49.99 2,873 78% 86k $4.3M (exactly $4,308,638) Square Enix, DOKIDOKI GROOVE WORKS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.