Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Strategy game?

Strategy + Match 3

Of 121 developers who shipped a Match 3 Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $250 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 72 developers shipped in the last year and 136 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 136 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 121
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $238 → $449 → $179 → $120 → $240 → $239 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 121
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $178 (exactly $178)
Top 25% $839 (exactly $839)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $21,878)
Developers, 2 yr 121
Released games 590
Announced 136
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Match 3; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Roguelite, RPG
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,391 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $830, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 76 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HuniePop older $9.99 23,989 96% 720k $7.2M (exactly $7,189,503) HuniePot
HuniePop 2: Double Date older $19.99 8,149 91% 244k $4.9M (exactly $4,886,955) HuniePot
The Legend of Bum-Bo older $14.99 5,654 80% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon)
Zuma Deluxe older $4.99 6,481 95% 194k $970k (exactly $970,206) PopCap Games, Inc.
Bejeweled® 3 older $4.99 6,096 96% 183k $913k (exactly $912,571) PopCap Games, Inc.
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Ironcast older $14.99 774 72% 23k $348k (exactly $348,068) Dreadbit
PuzzleQuest: Challenge of the Warlords older $9.99 1,025 86% 31k $307k (exactly $307,192) Infinite Interactive
10,000,000 older $4.99 1,807 90% 54k $271k (exactly $270,508) EightyEightGames
Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition older $17.99 434 80% 13k $234k (exactly $234,230) Dotemu, Capybara Games
Lucky Hunter $5.99 413 89% 12k $74k (exactly $74,216) 159 Studio
ANTHEM#9 $14.99 125 87% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) koeda
Neon Village $9.99 146 86% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) Encraft
PancitoMerge $7.99 158 99% 4.7k $38k (exactly $37,873) Fáyer, Sketchy Ceviche
Legends of Gems $8.99 139 81% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) 南京西木优洛网络科技有限公司
Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike $9.99 73 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Pepperbox Studios
Path of Dao $3.99 149 93% 4.5k $18k (exactly $17,835) 梦鲸工作室
Gem and Tarot $4.99 68 100% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,180) SHEN DING
转生魔塔 $11.99 26 88% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) Zeros

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.