Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Martial Arts

Only 9 developers shipped a Martial-Arts Rhythm game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dead as Disco, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180, ×0.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $9.2M, ×14748 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 7 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 7 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Rhythm + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 5% $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 32
Announced 7
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 700% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Rhythm
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 32,262 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $180, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $9.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
One Finger Death Punch older $4.99 12,548 97% 376k $1.9M (exactly $1,878,436) Silver Dollar Games
One Finger Death Punch 2 older $7.99 3,717 96% 112k $891k (exactly $890,965) Silver Dollar Games
Waifu Fighter older $7.99 2,677 86% 80k $642k (exactly $641,677) Happy Monster Studio
KickBeat Steam Edition older $9.99 358 75% 11k $107k (exactly $107,293) Zen Studios
Karateka older $3.99 203 77% 6.1k $24k (exactly $24,299) Liquid Entertainment
Slash or Die older $4.99 150 84% 4.5k $22k (exactly $22,455) ClickGames
Boot Camp Fitness older $10.99 66 96% 2.0k $22k (exactly $21,760) Kevin Baker
End of Edge older $3.99 166 77% 5.0k $20k (exactly $19,870) LightSpeed Studios
Viro Move older $24.99 23 43% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) FIT REALITY
Disco Samurai $9.99 45 88% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Pixel Fiber Games
Deukdo Beat $6.99 10 90% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Deukdo Games
カンフービート $3.99 17 100% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) ブルーオニキス
TAOLU $5.99 1 0% 30 $180 (exactly $180) The Game Forger
HAJIKI: Samurai Reflex Action $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) 電脳鈴木組
我的刀盾 $0.99 5 100% 150 $148 (exactly $148) 庇护所游戏公社
Beats Of Un'sonia · EA $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Stone Prods
ASURA BEAT $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) NUJABESCODE

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.