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Should I ship a War Management game?
Management + War
Of 139 developers who shipped a War Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 262 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3778 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 262 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.6k (exactly $4,613) |
| Top 25% | $95k (exactly $94,753) |
| Top 5% | $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 139 |
| Released games | 369 |
| Announced | 262 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Management
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- War
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Management; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Sandbox
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 58,306 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 262 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + WesternFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + JRPGFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + UnderwaterFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + 3D FighterFair
- + IncrementalFair
Comparable games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M 
Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
| | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
 | This War of Mine | older | $19.99 | 81,804 93% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,057,859) | 11 bit studios |
 | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
 | UBOAT | older | $29.99 | 25,568 83% | 767k | $23M (exactly $23,003,530) | Deep Water Studio |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | 龙胤立志传 | $19.99 | 7,153 77% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) | TPP Studio | |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Master of Command | $29.99 | 3,840 92% | 115k | $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) | Armchair Interactive | |
 | SpaceBourne 2 | $19.99 | 4,951 75% | 149k | $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) | Burak Dabak | |
 | Gunsmith Simulator | $24.99 | 3,165 84% | 95k | $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) | GameHunters | |
 | Nordhold | $19.99 | 2,875 87% | 86k | $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) | StunForge | |
 | Ground of Aces | · EA | $29.99 | 1,415 84% | 42k | $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) | Blindflug Studios AG |
 | Sir, We Have an Orc Problem | $9.99 | 4,123 86% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) | Mumpitz Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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