Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Villain Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Villain-Led Management game?

Management + Villain Protagonist

Only 8 developers shipped a Villain-Led Management game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition , made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $28k against a market of $630. 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 45.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 21 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Villain Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0M → $107k → $31k → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Villain Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $17k (exactly $17,270)
Median $28k (exactly $28,331)
Top 25% $415k (exactly $414,992)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 45
Announced 21
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Villain Protagonist
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management
Price point
$17.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 75,195 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $18k, median $28k, 1 in 4 over $410k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $18k. 21 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Evil Genius 2: World Domination older $39.99 11,255 69% 338k $14M (exactly $13,502,624) Rebellion
Dungeons 3 older $29.99 12,648 93% 379k $11M (exactly $11,379,406) Realmforge Studios
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
This Is the Police older $14.99 9,153 82% 275k $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) Weappy Studio
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
Luck be a Landlord older $9.99 10,213 93% 306k $3.1M (exactly $3,060,836) TrampolineTales
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager older $19.99 3,939 79% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) Goblinz Studio
Ravenous Devils older $4.99 9,477 92% 284k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,707) Bad Vices Games
Buggos 2 $19.99 692 83% 21k $415k (exactly $414,992) Intrepid Marmot
Underworld Overseer $19.99 52 90% 1.6k $31k (exactly $31,184) Myron Games
My Infamous Dungeon $14.99 63 76% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) BoxFox Studios
Ghost Keeper $12.99 70 75% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Quest Craft
Marry a Deep One: Innsmouth Simulator $17.99 32 50% 960 $17k (exactly $17,270) simulinati
Landlord Simulator · EA $13.99 29 62% 870 $12k (exactly $12,171) BeyondPlanet
Mammon: Devil Help · EA $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Dystopian Ruler

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.