Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics Management game?

Management + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 198 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 290 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×453 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 290 games are announced against 114 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 290 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 198
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $12k → $1.3k → $14k → $2.2k → $3.6k → $3.0k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 198
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,618)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $284k (exactly $284,462)
Developers, 2 yr 198
Released games 494
Announced 290
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management, Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 33,141 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 101 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 290 games are announced against 114 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BATTLETECH older $39.99 23,024 84% 691k $28M (exactly $27,621,893) Harebrained Schemes
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
Turmoil older $12.99 13,154 92% 395k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,114) Gamious
Phantom Doctrine older $39.99 3,821 73% 115k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) CreativeForge Games
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Teamfight Manager 2 · EA $19.99 2,251 60% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Team Samoyed
Football Coach: College Dynasty $19.99 1,485 95% 45k $891k (exactly $890,554) SidelineSim Studios
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
FRONT MISSION 3: Remake $34.99 453 74% 14k $476k (exactly $475,514) MegaPixel Studio S.A.
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.