Do I ship it?

Games › Management › Management + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Management game?

Management + Turn-Based Combat

Of 98 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 178 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.3k, ×8.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×497 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 178 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 178 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 98
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $4.8k → $9.4k → $2.2k → $4.2k → $7.6k → $4.5k (still earning) → $8.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 98
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $5.3k (exactly $5,280)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $47,976)
Top 5% $312k (exactly $312,092)
Developers, 2 yr 98
Released games 264
Announced 178
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management, Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 31,374 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $5.3k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 178 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ 2019 · $25M Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era 2026 · EA · $23M Empire of Sin 2020 · $5.5M 龙胤立志传 2026 · $4.3M Panzer Corps 2 2020 · $4.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ older $59.99 13,923 85% 418k $25M (exactly $25,057,223) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Karryn's Prison older $29.99 4,414 95% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,971,276) Remtairy
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Football, Tactics & Glory older $24.99 3,998 87% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,997,301) Creoteam
Xenonauts older $24.99 3,815 86% 114k $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) Goldhawk Interactive
Spirit Valley $14.99 1,203 89% 36k $541k (exactly $540,989) Otterside Games
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Never Second in Rome $12.99 637 81% 19k $248k (exactly $248,239) Alessandro Roberti
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Gods of Sand $9.99 720 86% 22k $216k (exactly $215,784) Achenar Studios
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.