Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Management game?

Management + Turn-Based

Of 42 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $61k, ×96 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×5913 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 63 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 96.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 63 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $229k → $301k → $109k → $33k → $131k → $201k (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Median $61k (exactly $60,570)
Top 25% $288k (exactly $288,012)
Top 5% $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 193
Announced 63
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management, Turn-Based; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 40,614 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $61k, 1 in 4 over $280k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 4 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
BATTLETECH older $39.99 23,024 84% 691k $28M (exactly $27,621,893) Harebrained Schemes
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ older $59.99 13,923 85% 418k $25M (exactly $25,057,223) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Yes, Your Grace older $19.99 12,571 87% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,538,829) Brave At Night
Old World older $39.99 6,002 82% 180k $7.2M (exactly $7,200,599) Mohawk Games
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
Democracy 3 older $24.99 6,245 73% 187k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,876) Positech Games
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Heroes of Science and Fiction $29.99 852 89% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Oxymoron Games
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Combolands: Roguelike Citybuilder $9.99 1,244 97% 37k $373k (exactly $372,827) Crux Games
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.