Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Management game?

Management + Roguelike

Of 272 developers who shipped a Roguelike Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 512 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×874 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 512 games are announced against 181 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 512 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 272
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.6k → $10k → $9.9k → $6.0k → $2.5k → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 272
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,875)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,176)
Top 5% $549k (exactly $548,634)
Developers, 2 yr 272
Released games 484
Announced 512
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management, Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 45,848 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $540k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 105 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 512 games are announced against 181 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation older $24.99 52,522 94% 1.6M $39M (exactly $39,375,743) ProjectMoon
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
PlateUp! older $19.99 18,500 94% 555k $11M (exactly $11,094,450) It's happening
Moonlighter older $19.99 17,286 82% 519k $10M (exactly $10,366,414) Digital Sun
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Mini Motorways older $9.99 23,561 96% 707k $7.1M (exactly $7,061,232) Dinosaur Polo Club
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
Bomber Crew older $15.99 10,416 88% 312k $5.0M (exactly $4,996,555) Runner Duck
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Restaurats $19.90 1,640 89% 49k $979k (exactly $979,080) toR Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.