Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Management game?

Management + Perma Death

Of 54 developers who shipped a Perma Death Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×962 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 110 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 110 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $537 → $5.3k → $1.2k → $13k → $1.8k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $43,756)
Top 5% $604k (exactly $603,947)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 138
Announced 110
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management, Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Roguelike
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 14,834 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Bomber Crew older $15.99 10,416 88% 312k $5.0M (exactly $4,996,555) Runner Duck
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Dead In Vinland older $27.80 1,175 78% 35k $980k (exactly $979,950) Ishtar Games
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Space Crew: Legendary Edition older $15.99 1,684 77% 51k $808k (exactly $807,815) Runner Duck
MASSIVE CHALICE older $19.99 1,240 73% 37k $744k (exactly $743,628) Double Fine Productions
Tharsis older $14.99 1,438 71% 43k $647k (exactly $646,669) Choice Provisions
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Gods of Sand $9.99 720 86% 22k $216k (exactly $215,784) Achenar Studios
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
Spin Hero $7.99 573 73% 17k $137k (exactly $137,348) Sphere Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.