Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Management game?

Management + Naval

Of 21 developers who shipped a Naval Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $790k, ×1266 the market median. Revenue is up 195% on the market; 43 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 195% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $99k → $566k → $13k → $5.3k → $4.6k (still earning) → $6.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,613)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,529)
Top 5% $795k (exactly $795,335)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 82
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 195% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Management; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Wargame
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 3,884 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $790k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Seafarer: The Ship Sim · EA $34.99 1,921 64% 58k $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474) astragon Development
Ships At Sea · EA older $24.99 2,479 69% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,858,506) Misc Games
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Rule the Waves 3 older $39.99 855 87% 26k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,744) Naval Warfare Simulations
Ship Graveyard Simulator older $14.99 2,107 64% 63k $948k (exactly $947,518) Games Incubator
Airship: Kingdoms Adrift older $29.99 902 75% 27k $812k (exactly $811,529) Revolution Industry
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean $14.99 119 33% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Fishing Cactus
FULL METAL COFFIN $4.99 137 94% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith
Wizard Warfare 2: Cephalopod Wars $10.99 38 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Psyanotek Limited
Hydra Heli $4.99 83 91% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Ideas Per Second
Fathom's End · EA $19.99 20 95% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Lonely Anchor
Storm Seas · EA $14.99 19 52% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Dclares Dev
Hydra Heli 2 $6.99 30 80% 900 $6.3k (exactly $6,291) Ideas Per Second

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.