Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Management game?

Management + Lovecraftian

Only 17 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Management game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Worshippers of Cthulhu, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×23 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1558 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 44 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $11k → $89k (still earning) → $6.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Median $15k (exactly $14,723)
Top 25% $106k (exactly $106,416)
Top 5% $978k (exactly $978,358)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 38
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 365% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Building
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 7,119 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.8k, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.8k. 44 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation older $24.99 52,522 94% 1.6M $39M (exactly $39,375,743) ProjectMoon
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager older $19.99 3,939 79% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) Goblinz Studio
Worshippers of Cthulhu $24.99 1,305 80% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Crazy Goat Games
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Gamblers Table $6.99 2,955 74% 89k $620k (exactly $619,664) greenpixels, Bossforge
The Shrouded Isle older $12.99 1,166 71% 35k $454k (exactly $454,390) Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau,… (Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau, Tanya Short)
Do No Harm $15.99 896 74% 27k $430k (exactly $429,811) Darts Games
X-COM: Terror From the Deep older $4.99 764 92% 23k $114k (exactly $114,371) MicroProse Software, Inc
BLOODLETTER $15.49 229 79% 6.9k $106k (exactly $106,416) ALDAMAMI GAMES
Peregrino $16.99 174 65% 5.2k $89k (exactly $88,688) Inverge Studios
Marry a Deep One: Innsmouth Simulator $17.99 32 50% 960 $17k (exactly $17,270) simulinati
Fortune Seller $6.99 81 85% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,986) Kiwick
Cult of the Yellow King · EA $3.99 123 79% 3.7k $15k (exactly $14,723) Metaphor Games, Newmind Interactive
Petunia's Purgatory $6.99 69 98% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Dead Possum Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.