Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Strategy game?

Strategy + Investigation

Of 133 developers who shipped an Investigation Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 260 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1256 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 260 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 260 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 133
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $748 → $1.3k → $1.0k → $898 → $719 → $150 (still earning) → $838 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 133
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $478 (exactly $478)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,429)
Top 5% $789k (exactly $788,919)
Developers, 2 yr 133
Released games 380
Announced 260
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Investigation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 63,334 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $480, 1 in 4 over $3.4k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 260 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Project Winter older $9.99 13,662 84% 410k $4.1M (exactly $4,094,501) Other Ocean Interactive
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Beholder: Conductor $13.99 4,532 91% 136k $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) Alawar
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Subliminal $9.99 3,535 74% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,440) Accidental Studios
Feign $4.99 5,270 91% 158k $789k (exactly $788,919) Teneke Kafalar
The House of Tesla: Definitive Edition $24.99 836 72% 25k $627k (exactly $626,749) Blue Brain Games
Misty Judgment $8.99 1,170 92% 35k $316k (exactly $315,549) 次元边界
Troublemaker 2: Beyond Dream $24.99 142 95% 4.3k $106k (exactly $106,457) Gamecom Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.