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Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Walking Simulator?
Walking Simulator + Interactive Fiction
Of 204 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 341 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×392 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 341 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $390 (exactly $390) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,373) |
| Top 25% | $7.3k (exactly $7,282) |
| Top 5% | $186k (exactly $186,176) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 204 |
| Released games | 605 |
| Announced | 341 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Walking Simulator
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Interactive Fiction
- effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Walking Simulator, Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 14,211 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $390. 9 in 10 of the 139 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 341 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Walking Simulator with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WarFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + ThrillerFair
- + MusicFair
- + SupernaturalFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + NoirFair
Comparable games
To the Moon 2012 · $21M 
The Invincible 2023 · $9.0M 
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition 2021 · $6.5M 
Before Your Eyes 2021 · $6.4M 
Gone Home 2013 · $6.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | To the Moon | older | $9.99 | 69,549 95% | 2.1M | $21M (exactly $20,843,835) | Freebird Games |
| | The Invincible | older | $29.99 | 10,055 87% | 302k | $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) | Starward Industries |
| | OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition | older | $24.99 | 8,722 96% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,538,883) | SIGONO INC. |
| | Before Your Eyes | older | $9.99 | 21,236 97% | 637k | $6.4M (exactly $6,364,429) | GoodbyeWorld Games, Nice Dream |
| | Gone Home | older | $14.99 | 13,619 77% | 409k | $6.1M (exactly $6,124,464) | Fullbright |
 | Nobody Wants to Die | older | $24.99 | 5,818 83% | 175k | $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) | Critical Hit Games |
 | Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs | older | $19.99 | 7,236 69% | 217k | $4.3M (exactly $4,339,429) | The Chinese Room |
 | Killer Frequency | older | $24.99 | 5,131 93% | 154k | $3.8M (exactly $3,846,711) | Team17 |
 | KARMA: The Dark World | $24.99 | 3,963 90% | 119k | $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) | POLLARD STUDIO LLC | |
 | Shelter 2 | older | $24.99 | 3,378 87% | 101k | $2.5M (exactly $2,532,487) | Might and Delight |
 | One-Eyed Likho | $19.99 | 1,155 93% | 35k | $693k (exactly $692,654) | Morteshka | |
 | Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy | $39.99 | 526 90% | 16k | $631k (exactly $631,042) | Microids Studio Paris | |
 | despelote | $14.99 | 1,011 95% | 30k | $455k (exactly $454,647) | Julián Cordero, Sebastian Valbuena | |
 | CARIMARA: Beneath the forlorn limbs | $4.99 | 2,752 96% | 83k | $412k (exactly $411,974) | Bastinus Rex | |
 | While We Wait Here | $4.99 | 2,344 89% | 70k | $351k (exactly $350,897) | Bad Vices Games | |
 | No Players Online | $14.99 | 624 83% | 19k | $281k (exactly $280,613) | Beeswax Games | |
 | GIRLS MADE PUDDING | $9.99 | 866 95% | 26k | $260k (exactly $259,540) | Kazuhide Oka | |
 | DYSTHANASIA | $24.99 | 334 88% | 10k | $250k (exactly $250,400) | Madowaku Kobo | |
 | The Caribou Trail | $12.99 | 636 90% | 19k | $248k (exactly $247,849) | Unreliable Narrators, Manavoid Entertai… (Unreliable Narrators, Manavoid Entertainment) |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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