Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Idler

Of 20 developers who shipped an Idler Rhythm game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 275% on the market; 17 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 275% on the market, 17 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $89 → $269 → $897 → $629 → $5.1k → $449 (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,113)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $52,448)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 64
Announced 17
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 275% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Rhythm, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Management, Point & Click
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Cartoony, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 516 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $630, 1 in 4 over $5.1k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NeverSynth older $12.99 715 75% 21k $279k (exactly $278,636) Whale Rock Games
CYBRID · EA older $14.99 139 89% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Tom Reason
Massage With Benefits $9.99 175 84% 5.3k $52k (exactly $52,448) pasunna
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Federation77 older $9.99 96 78% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) MIROWIN
Slice To Meet You $3.99 129 78% 3.9k $15k (exactly $15,441) Lumamind Studio
GOOOAL older $2.99 92 88% 2.8k $8.3k (exactly $8,252) SmoochGM
Dark Treasury older $4.99 52 69% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) Astralis Games, Red Axe
Skulker $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Krow Game
The Disguiser Of Fate older $2.99 65 89% 2.0k $5.8k (exactly $5,830) Windward_Birds, XNZONE
Comfy Girl $2.99 57 87% 1.7k $5.1k (exactly $5,113) Unorthodox Box
AKUMA: Cyberpunk Rhythm Action $8.99 14 100% 420 $3.8k (exactly $3,776) Transascetic Games
BackSlap $1.99 24 91% 720 $1.4k (exactly $1,433) Dotoyou Games
Cowgirl Corp $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Azurezero
Synthularity $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Inc Inc
Satisfying Simulator $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Satisfying Simulator

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.