Do I ship it?

GamesPrecision PlatformerPrecision Platformer + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Precision Platformer?

Precision Platformer + Historical

Only 12 developers shipped a Historical Precision Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ritter & Rotwein, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $32k, ×51 the market median. Revenue is up 1045% on the market; 14 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 1045% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Precision Platformer + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $150 → $987 → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Precision Platformer + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,668)
Top 5% $32k (exactly $32,224)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 33
Announced 14
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1045% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Precision Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Precision Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 78% positive over 241 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $960, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Precision Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  2. + FPSFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  3. + GothicFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 17 announced
  4. + HorrorFair68 devs · median $1.0k · 69 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationFair103 devs · median $748 · 116 announced
  6. + Perma DeathFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  7. + IdlerFair12 devs · median $657 · 6 announced
  8. + Action RoguelikeFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + Time ManipulationFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxFair30 devs · median $537 · 21 announced
  11. + Procedural GenerationFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  12. + RPGFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced

All 123 pairs on the Precision Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ritter & Rotwein $12.49 86 68% 2.6k $32k (exactly $32,224) Hurdy-Gurdy Games
AtmaSphere 2 older $4.99 146 79% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,856) Mazen Games
Japanese Rail Sim: Operating the MEITETSU Line older $8.99 63 61% 1.9k $17k (exactly $16,991) Sonic Powered Co.,Ltd.
Pyramidion · EA $4.99 71 85% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) TechDevAYDIN
ArtFormer: Ancient Stories older $4.99 33 60% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Frix, Adam Hrubý, Buffa Software
Balling Up $3.99 39 79% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) RedKar Devs
Stickit older $2.99 41 92% 1.2k $3.7k (exactly $3,678) Symfonim
Bonk It! $4.99 18 88% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Slotherin
The Black Knight older $2.99 29 65% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Over Games
NaÀra: Contos de Resistência · EA older $7.99 8 62% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Rebuliço Studios
Pirate Guy $2.99 11 81% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Cow Games
Tornado - Caballo del Zorro · EA $7.99 4 75% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Dark Waters Games
A Lenda de Niterói $2.99 8 87% 240 $718 (exactly $718) Seven Moons
Bow and Banister $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) MODE24
Git up! $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Atomic Lighthouse
Only Climber Venice $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Zombie Developer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.