Do I ship it?

Games › Management › Management + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Management game?

Management + Hex Grid

Of 49 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $510; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2327 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 92 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 92 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $2.4k → $12k → $2.6k → $3.3k → $20k → $3.2k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $510 (exactly $510)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,497)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 120
Announced 92
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management, Hex Grid; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 9,960 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $510, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $510. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M Panzer Corps 2 2020 · $4.2M Millennia 2024 · $3.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Galactic Civilizations IV older $39.99 2,207 72% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) Stardock Entertainment
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
MoteMancer · EA $29.99 243 91% 7.3k $219k (exactly $218,627) CyanAvatar Studios
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Humanica · EA $14.99 192 93% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) PanfachDev
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.