Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Heist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist Management game?

Management + Heist

Only 10 developers shipped a Heist Management game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Laundering Simulator - Clean Cash and Laundry, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×248 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $390 → $3.1k → $6.7k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,736)
Top 5% $155k (exactly $155,490)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 25
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Management
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 78% positive over 601 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Laundering Simulator - Clean Cash and Laundry $12.99 399 81% 12k $155k (exactly $155,490) Ritual Interactive
Find or be Found $7.99 117 69% 3.5k $28k (exactly $28,045) Studio Downstairs
CYBER INTERNET CLUB SIMULATOR older $12.99 35 40% 1.1k $14k (exactly $13,640) EchoVerse Core
Kitchen Wars $4.99 45 80% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Silent Owl
No Knock $9.99 16 50% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) No Knock
Burger Joint older $2.99 46 100% 1.4k $4.1k (exactly $4,126) Ishbull Studios
Golden Rails: Harvest of Riddles older $6.99 19 89% 570 $4.0k (exactly $3,984) Alawar Casual
Golden Rails: The heart of the state $6.99 15 93% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Alawar Casual
MUMMMASTER! older $4.99 13 92% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Conglomerate 5
PolyCrime · EA $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) FoxGameDev
One Last Job $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Triple Eye Games
Ragamuffins: Feline Fencers $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Pocket Money Games
Mouspionage $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) HawtLava Games
Vaultix $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Damien DOUZANT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.