Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + World War I

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWI Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + World War I

Only 6 developers shipped a WWI Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Age of History 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $190k against a market of $1.5k. 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 124.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 7 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + World War I
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Grand Strategy + World War I: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Median $187k (exactly $186,666)
Top 25% $795k (exactly $795,335)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 31
Announced 7
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
World War I
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 152,996 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $190k, 1 in 4 over $790k, 1 in 20 over $5.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Iron Harvest older $29.99 11,682 74% 350k $11M (exactly $10,510,295) KING Art
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
The Great War: Western Front™ older $34.99 2,733 66% 82k $2.9M (exactly $2,868,830) Petroglyph
Hearts of Iron III older $9.99 4,962 76% 149k $1.5M (exactly $1,487,111) Paradox Development Studio
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Warnament $12.99 479 84% 14k $187k (exactly $186,666) Luden.io
On The Western Front $13.99 88 84% 2.6k $37k (exactly $36,934) Aggroblakh
Of Crowns & Chains · EA $4.99 17 64% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) BlueJayAvis
Front Frontiers $2.99 4 75% 120 $359 (exactly $359) baus96

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.