Do I ship it?

Games › Grand Strategy › Grand Strategy + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Trading

Of 22 developers who shipped a Trading Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×470 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 52 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 52 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $38k → $6.3k → $15k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,391)
Top 5% $704k (exactly $703,683)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 60
Announced 52
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 240% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Trading; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Economy, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 26,198 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M Sailing Era 2023 · $3.4M Power & Revolution 2022 Edition 2022 · $1.2M Plutocracy 2019 · EA · $978k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition older $49.99 815 60% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) Eversim
Plutocracy · EA older $24.99 1,305 79% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Redwood
Power & Revolution 2021 Edition older $49.99 629 56% 19k $943k (exactly $943,311) Eversim
Grand Ages: Medieval older $19.99 1,565 47% 47k $939k (exactly $938,530) Gaming Minds Studios
SuperPower 3 older $29.99 982 10% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) GolemLabs
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Computer Tycoon · EA older $19.99 916 84% 27k $549k (exactly $549,325) Progorion
Tlatoani: Aztec Cities $19.99 180 83% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios
Project Rebearth $17.99 184 70% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) Program Sam
Globalism · EA $29.99 17 52% 510 $15k (exactly $15,295) igelanium games
Governor $15.99 30 76% 900 $14k (exactly $14,391) Daniling
王朝：将军觐见 · EA $6.99 25 80% 750 $5.2k (exactly $5,242) 三千越甲GameStudio
New Stars $19.99 5 60% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) adamjr
Machiavelli the Prince $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Holistic Design, Inc.
Orbit Economica $24.99 3 66% 90 $2.2k (exactly $2,249) Phoenix Smith

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.