Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tower Defense Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Tower Defense

Only 17 developers shipped a Tower Defense Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Creeper World IXE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×342 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 25 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $300 → $2.7k → $4.2k → $3.5k → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,472)
Top 5% $513k (exactly $512,743)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 71
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Tower Defense; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RTS, Strategy, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 1,156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Creeper World 4 older $24.99 4,553 94% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,413,384) Knuckle Cracker
AI War 2 older $19.99 1,130 87% 34k $678k (exactly $677,661) Arcen Games
Creeper World IXE $19.99 855 69% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) Knuckle Cracker
Home Wars older $9.99 1,141 78% 34k $342k (exactly $341,958) Insane Dreamers
AI War: Fleet Command older $9.99 992 85% 30k $297k (exactly $297,302) Arcen Games
Attack on Toys · EA older $6.99 1,158 93% 35k $243k (exactly $242,833) N7T-GAMES
Love n War: Warlord by Chance older $4.99 1,305 86% 39k $195k (exactly $195,358) Reborn Entertainment
Goblins of Elderstone older $19.99 305 69% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Outerdawn, Lost Goblin
Royal Defense older $14.99 246 70% 7.4k $111k (exactly $110,626) Good Games, Creobit
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
Royal Lord - 王权领主 $14.99 40 90% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) 开发鸭
Legacy of Sin: Ill-Boding $12.99 23 69% 690 $9.0k (exactly $8,963) Absolute Power Game Studio
Heroic Aegisio: Origins $7.99 27 77% 810 $6.5k (exactly $6,472) Vview Games
Gold Defence $9.99 20 65% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Gamesforgames
Winning Tactics $9.99 14 78% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Summoner's Automata $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Medievaly: Battle Simulator $8.99 13 76% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Steelkrill Studio
Grow Empire: Rome $3.99 28 64% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Games Station

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.