Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Strategy RPG

Of 47 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×918 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 79 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 79 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $14k → $3.0k → $4.2k → $6.0k → $3.9k → $1.3k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $45,577)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 177
Announced 79
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Strategy RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 14,673 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Age of Wonders 4 older $49.99 16,899 82% 507k $25M (exactly $25,343,430) Triumph Studios
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
NEBULOUS: Fleet Command · EA older $29.99 4,074 81% 122k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,378) Eridanus Industries
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Xenonauts older $24.99 3,815 86% 114k $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) Goldhawk Interactive
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Crown and Adventure $19.99 1,693 61% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) C3D Games
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Chaos Front $19.99 252 59% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Han Zhiyu
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
TOHOTOPIA · EA $3.99 732 97% 22k $88k (exactly $87,620) Remilia Command

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.