Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Space

Of 37 developers who shipped a Space Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×342 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 61 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 61 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $25k → $6.3k → $449 → $9.8k → $4.8k → $3.0k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,249)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,390)
Top 5% $513k (exactly $512,743)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 135
Announced 61
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, 4X, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 11,387 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack older $19.99 36,153 97% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,680,954) Petroglyph
ENDLESS Space™ 2 older $39.99 17,280 83% 518k $21M (exactly $20,730,816) AMPLITUDE Studios
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion older $19.99 10,243 93% 307k $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Master of Orion older $24.99 7,332 76% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,496,800) NGD Studios
Creeper World IXE $19.99 855 69% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) Knuckle Cracker
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
Chaos Front $19.99 252 59% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Han Zhiyu
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive
Stellar Reach $19.99 34 79% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Stelleas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.