Do I ship it?

Games › Grand Strategy › Grand Strategy + RTS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grand Strategy RTS?

Grand Strategy + RTS

Of 92 developers who shipped a Grand Strategy RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.5k, ×5.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×930 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 162 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 162 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + RTS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 92
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $25k → $11k → $50k → $9.3k → $3.9k → $3.3k (still earning) → $29k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + RTS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 92
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,336)
Median $7.5k (exactly $7,485)
Top 25% $90k (exactly $90,210)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852)
Developers, 2 yr 92
Released games 390
Announced 162
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, RTS; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Wargame
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 42,686 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $7.5k, 1 in 4 over $90k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Ultimate General: American Revolution $49.99 917 51% 28k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225) Game-Labs
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Empire of the Ants $39.99 931 73% 28k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) Tower Five
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.