Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + PvE

Of 41 developers who shipped a PvE Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×746 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 83 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 83 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $6.6k → $360 → $4.9k → $9.8k → $4.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,295)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 130
Announced 83
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, PvE; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Action RTS
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Isometric, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 16,184 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dune: Spice Wars older $34.99 11,561 79% 347k $12M (exactly $12,135,582) Shiro Games
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
The Great War: Western Front™ older $34.99 2,733 66% 82k $2.9M (exactly $2,868,830) Petroglyph
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Plebby Quest: The Crusades older $19.99 2,625 86% 79k $1.6M (exactly $1,574,212) PiedPipers Team
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Empire of the Ants $39.99 931 73% 28k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) Tower Five
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Pax Augusta $24.99 564 69% 17k $423k (exactly $422,831) Roger Gassmann
Armored Brigade II $39.99 147 87% 4.4k $176k (exactly $176,356) Veitikka Studios
Circle Empires 2 $12.99 266 72% 8.0k $104k (exactly $103,660) Luminous
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
International Basketball Manager 26 $19.99 37 72% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) UPLAY Basketball
Great Powers $14.99 37 67% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.