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Should I ship a PvE Grand Strategy?
Grand Strategy + PvE
Of 41 developers who shipped a PvE Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×746 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 83 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $15,295) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 130 |
| Announced | 83 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Grand Strategy
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- PvE
- effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Grand Strategy, PvE; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Action RTS
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Isometric, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 16,184 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RoguelikeFair
- + SportsFair
- + RogueliteFair
- + CrimeFair
- + RacingFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot
- + TabletopLong shot
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition | $29.99 | 12,286 85% | 369k | $11M (exactly $11,053,714) | Relic Entertainment | |
| | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Phoenix Point | older | $24.99 | 5,375 73% | 161k | $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) | Snapshot Games Inc. |
| | The Great War: Western Front™ | older | $34.99 | 2,733 66% | 82k | $2.9M (exactly $2,868,830) | Petroglyph |
| | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
| | Dune: Imperium | older | $22.99 | 3,806 94% | 114k | $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) | Dire Wolf |
| | Plebby Quest: The Crusades | older | $19.99 | 2,625 86% | 79k | $1.6M (exactly $1,574,212) | PiedPipers Team |
| | ZeroSpace | · EA | $39.99 | 1,161 78% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) | Starlance Studios, Ironward |
| | Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes | older | $24.99 | 1,655 78% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Empire of the Ants | $39.99 | 931 73% | 28k | $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) | Tower Five | |
| | Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles | · EA | $39.99 | 633 87% | 19k | $759k (exactly $759,410) | Drydock Dreams Games |
| | Pax Augusta | $24.99 | 564 69% | 17k | $423k (exactly $422,831) | Roger Gassmann | |
| | Armored Brigade II | $39.99 | 147 87% | 4.4k | $176k (exactly $176,356) | Veitikka Studios | |
| | Circle Empires 2 | $12.99 | 266 72% | 8.0k | $104k (exactly $103,660) | Luminous | |
| | Repterra | $19.99 | 122 90% | 3.7k | $73k (exactly $73,163) | Chute Apps | |
| | International Basketball Manager 26 | $19.99 | 37 72% | 1.1k | $22k (exactly $22,189) | UPLAY Basketball | |
| | Great Powers | $14.99 | 37 67% | 1.1k | $17k (exactly $16,639) | Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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