Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Post-apocalyptic

Only 11 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ZEPHON, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×1472 the market median. Revenue is up 7015% on the market; 13 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 7015% on the market, 13 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $16k (exactly $16,184)
Top 25% $99k (exactly $99,305)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 32
Announced 13
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 7015% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 81% positive over 2,612 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $99k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Command & Conquer™ 3: Kane’s Wrath older $6.96 5,499 93% 165k $1.1M (exactly $1,148,191) EA Los Angeles
Imagine Earth older $24.99 810 79% 24k $607k (exactly $607,257) Serious Bros.
Floodland older $19.99 921 54% 28k $552k (exactly $552,324) Vile Monarch
Raiders! Forsaken Earth older $19.99 268 80% 8.0k $161k (exactly $160,720) Creative Storm Entertainment
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Project Rebearth $17.99 184 70% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) Program Sam
Worlds Upon The Wind $9.99 238 99% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,329) Max Shawabkeh
Age of Undead older $19.99 80 76% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) Insane Dreamers
Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance $6.99 86 55% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) zzzgame
Post-Apo Builder $9.99 54 37% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Septarian Games
Supreme Ruler Global Outbreak $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) BattleGoat Studios
Sidereal Dominion: Avalon · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Spatha Games
zombie tide incoming Rising $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) AA Mini Games Studio
Hexa Merge $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Andre Nothof

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.