Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Modern

Only 19 developers shipped a Modern-Day Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ICBM: Escalation, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×8.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×750 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $229k → $381k → $22k → $13k → $3.3k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $13k (exactly $12,946)
Top 25% $146k (exactly $145,908)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 53
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Strategy, Political Sim
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 3,123 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 4 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
Power & Revolution 2020 Edition older $49.99 769 63% 23k $1.2M (exactly $1,153,269) Eversim
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
SuperPower 3 older $29.99 982 10% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) GolemLabs
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Supreme Ruler Ultimate older $19.99 1,169 77% 35k $701k (exactly $701,049) BattleGoat Studios
Supreme Ruler 2030 older $29.99 532 65% 16k $479k (exactly $478,640) BattleGoat Studios
Geo-Political Simulator 2026 Edition $59.99 249 48% 7.5k $448k (exactly $448,125) Eversim
Realpolitiks II older $24.99 537 46% 16k $403k (exactly $402,589) Jujubee S.A.
Supermarket & Internet Cafe Simulator older $14.99 847 79% 25k $381k (exactly $380,896) SmartPlayGames
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
AfterWar $34.99 139 72% 4.2k $146k (exactly $145,908) Dmytro Lumen
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
Trade Conquest $14.99 75 69% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) GrandPaw Games
Skyline Urban Story $6.99 106 90% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,228) PandaUpStudio
Globalism · EA $29.99 17 52% 510 $15k (exactly $15,295) igelanium games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.