Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Medieval

Of 45 developers who shipped a Medieval Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 111 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×3.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×444 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 111 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 111 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $127k → $7.4k → $54k → $116k → $17k → $99k → $4.2k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $84,558)
Top 5% $666k (exactly $665,667)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 157
Announced 111
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Wargame
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 24,011 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $84k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 111 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
A Total War Saga: THRONES OF BRITANNIA older $19.99 12,326 70% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,391,902) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Knights of Honor II: Sovereign older $44.99 4,933 77% 148k $6.7M (exactly $6,658,070) Black Sea Games
Songs of Syx · EA older $24.99 8,842 94% 265k $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) Gamatron AB
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
Pax Augusta $24.99 564 69% 17k $423k (exactly $422,831) Roger Gassmann
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown $27.99 374 54% 11k $314k (exactly $314,048) Zugalu Entertainment
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
King's Orders $14.99 257 70% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) AFTERLIFE👻
Knights of the Crusades $19.99 166 69% 5.0k $100k (exactly $99,550) Reverie World Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.