Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Magic

Only 7 developers shipped a Magic Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Elemental: Reforged, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $6.5k against a market of $1.5k. 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 27 announced, ×14 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,472)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Top 5% $430k (exactly $430,057)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 42
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 42,052 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Warlock - Master of the Arcane older $24.99 1,003 86% 30k $752k (exactly $751,949) Ino-Co Plus
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
Immortal Realms: Vampire Wars older $29.99 408 62% 12k $367k (exactly $367,078) Palindrome Interactive
CountryBalls Heroes older $14.99 408 77% 12k $183k (exactly $183,478) Innominate Games
Planar Conquest older $9.99 377 55% 11k $113k (exactly $112,987) Wastelands Interactive
Broken Alliance · EA $14.99 42 80% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Placeholder Gameworks
Royal Lord - 王权领主 $14.99 40 90% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) 开发鸭
Heroic Aegisio: Origins $7.99 27 77% 810 $6.5k (exactly $6,472) Vview Games
Elemental Empire $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) WizardingGames
Lightcore Guardians $5.99 3 66% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Jampot Games
Fantasy War Heroes: Chilling Fog $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hetocode

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.