Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Life Sim

Only 14 developers shipped a Life Sim Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Monarch : Medieval Remastered, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×88 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $13k → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,232)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,688)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $131,290)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 44
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Life Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,106 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
City Game Studio: Your Game Dev Adventure Begins older $19.99 1,779 91% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,866) Binogure Studio 🐺
Supermarket & Internet Cafe Simulator older $14.99 847 79% 25k $381k (exactly $380,896) SmartPlayGames
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
Deadwater Saloon older $19.99 186 63% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Tanglefoot Games
Rugby Union Team Manager 4 older $39.99 60 70% 1.8k $72k (exactly $71,982) Alternative Software Ltd
吾皇万岁 $4.99 422 68% 13k $63k (exactly $63,173) AI GAME STUDIO
Tennis Manager 25 $19.99 76 68% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Rebound
Hockey Manager 20|20 older $19.99 76 61% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) netmin games
場外人生 · EA older $2.99 315 90% 9.5k $28k (exactly $28,256) YuruOwO
Trump Simulator 2025 $3.99 106 91% 3.2k $13k (exactly $12,688) Luke Gayson
Dictator Simulator: Gradnar $4.99 84 97% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) GortagonGame
Pharma R&D Manager $49.99 3 66% 90 $4.5k (exactly $4,499) Innopede GmbH
Cargo Shop Simulator $3.99 27 70% 810 $3.2k (exactly $3,232) Enginar Games
Central Bank $18.99 5 0% 150 $2.8k (exactly $2,848) Nabiulina software, Jerome Powerr studi… (Nabiulina software, Jerome Powerr studio, Rusalka Unreal Labs)
Honoiro no Jikou 穗色时光 $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Shanghai Yaxian Huizhi Technology Co.,… (Shanghai Yaxian Huizhi Technology Co., Ltd.)
Gym Empire - Idle Gym Tycoon Management $4.99 14 71% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Chronik Spartan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.