Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Idler

Only 16 developers shipped an Idler Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Idle Deepcore, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $76k, ×51 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 31 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $1.6k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,180)
Top 5% $77k (exactly $76,540)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 40
Announced 31
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 952 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $76k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Idle Deepcore $6.99 365 85% 11k $77k (exactly $76,540) Bluehood Games
Countryballs: Power Protocol $9.99 168 79% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) KNK DEVELOP
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions
Goal Idle · EA $6.99 101 74% 3.0k $21k (exactly $21,180) Royue Games
Beaver Clicker · EA older $4.99 61 75% 1.8k $9.1k (exactly $9,132) Temmie
MiniMap Kingdom older $2.99 83 84% 2.5k $7.4k (exactly $7,445) YuruOwO
CompactO - Idle Game older $2.99 80 70% 2.4k $7.2k (exactly $7,176) Considera Games LLC
Носковраздор $0.99 136 51% 4.1k $4.0k (exactly $4,039) BMBK Games
Underwater World - Idle Desktop Colony Building Simulator older $4.99 23 65% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Overlay Games, AnretanDEV
Grow Empire: Rome $3.99 28 64% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Games Station
Gym Empire - Idle Gym Tycoon Management $4.99 14 71% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Chronik Spartan
Stellar Industrialist $2.99 18 88% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) PcZ Games
CheeseMoney $2.99 13 23% 390 $1.2k (exactly $1,166) Liang ZhiYa, Global People Holdings Gro… (Liang ZhiYa, Global People Holdings Group LLC, Song-Ya Network Systems (Guangzhou) Co Ltd)
Imperial Wager: The Shattered Crown of Augustus $19.99 1 0% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Ke Zhou

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.