Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Horror

Only 10 developers shipped a Horror Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ZEPHON, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $1.5k. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 13 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $478 → $419 → $25k → $299
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,798)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 30
Announced 13
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 83% positive over 1,905 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Fury of Dracula: Digital Edition older $12.99 213 72% 6.4k $83k (exactly $83,006) Nomad Games
Z-Collapse older $12.99 87 73% 2.6k $34k (exactly $33,904) Pok&Co
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
Shadows Behind the Throne 2 older $7.99 47 76% 1.4k $11k (exactly $11,266) Bobby Two Hands
HARD VOID · EA $19.99 8 100% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) jejoxdev
Maniac Path 4 $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Gamesforgames
Twisted Games · EA $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) C&S
Backrooms: Exit 8 $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Luke Gayson
Escape the Maze · EA $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Fatih CALISKAN
SKIBIDI TOILET: Operation Terror $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Luke Grayson
Halloween Night $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Konrad Łaniecki
Hotel Security $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gyoddam Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.