Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Strategy game?

Strategy + Gothic

Of 66 developers who shipped a Gothic Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 137 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×433 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 137 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 137 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $628 → $12k → $22k → $1.3k → $3.1k → $1.2k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,588)
Top 5% $272k (exactly $271,621)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 149
Announced 137
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 16,139 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 137 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
Iratus: Lord of the Dead older $29.99 7,206 84% 216k $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) Unfrozen
Brutal Legend older $14.99 11,365 94% 341k $5.1M (exactly $5,110,840) Double Fine Productions
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager older $19.99 3,939 79% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) Goblinz Studio
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada (Classic) older $14.99 5,135 68% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,309,210) Tindalos Interactive
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Staffer Case: A Supernatural Mystery Adventure older $16.99 4,074 93% 122k $2.1M (exactly $2,076,518) Team Tetrapod
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail
绯红编年史 ~ Chronicle of Scarlet ~ $12.99 697 88% 21k $272k (exactly $271,621) Charge Piggy Studio
Tenebris: Terra Incognita $19.99 313 79% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Phantasmica Studios
Journey to Incrementalia $4.99 894 86% 27k $134k (exactly $133,832) Adam Travers
Alice's Gaze $3.99 770 91% 23k $92k (exactly $92,169) Starmoon Cat
Peregrino $16.99 174 65% 5.2k $89k (exactly $88,688) Inverge Studios
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine
Castle Doombad Classic $9.99 140 95% 4.2k $42k (exactly $41,958) Grumpyface Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.