Do I ship it?

Games › Rhythm › Rhythm + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Futuristic

Of 61 developers who shipped a Futuristic Rhythm game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×616 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 92 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 92 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $2.2k → $6.8k → $5.8k → $748 → $300 → $3.3k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $360 (exactly $360)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 5% $293k (exactly $292,665)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 183
Announced 92
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Rhythm; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 5,086 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $360, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Beat Saber 2019 · $42M Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ 2022 · $23M Pistol Whip 2019 · $3.2M Spin Rhythm XD 2023 · $2.3M Sixtar Gate: STARTRAIL 2024 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Pistol Whip older $29.99 3,586 94% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,226,324) Cloudhead Games Ltd.
Spin Rhythm XD older $19.99 3,788 97% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,271,664) Super Spin Digital
Sixtar Gate: STARTRAIL $24.99 1,425 86% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,322) Starlike Inc.
PLATiNA :: LAB $19.99 1,780 50% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,466) HIGH-END Games
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
MASH VP! Re:VISION $29.99 405 85% 12k $364k (exactly $364,378) AXTORM, SQUARE PIXELS
Synthwave Burnout $12.99 751 74% 23k $293k (exactly $292,665) Whale Rock Games
MUSYNX:RETURN $19.99 284 74% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) I-Inferno
CYBERMATRIX $12.00 127 89% 3.8k $46k (exactly $45,720) Tim Murich
Band Space $19.99 46 78% 1.4k $28k (exactly $27,586) Smartmelon Games
Rhythm Storm $9.99 86 91% 2.6k $26k (exactly $25,774) Radiangames
Dance Eden $19.99 42 85% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) DigiEden
ION Shift $5.99 140 90% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) Electro Soul Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.