Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Futuristic

Of 24 developers who shipped a Futuristic Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×183 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 40 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $25k → $5.0k → $15k → $3.0k → $4.8k → $1.6k (still earning) → $8.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,396)
Top 5% $274k (exactly $273,867)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 100
Announced 40
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Strategy, RTS
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,203 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Supreme Commander 2 older $12.99 8,349 87% 250k $3.3M (exactly $3,253,605) Gas Powered Games
Carrier Command 2 older $29.99 3,444 82% 103k $3.1M (exactly $3,098,567) Geometa
Galactic Civilizations IV older $39.99 2,207 72% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) Stardock Entertainment
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition older $9.99 6,626 79% 199k $2.0M (exactly $1,985,812) AMPLITUDE Studios
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
Stellar Reach $19.99 34 79% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Stelleas
Globalism · EA $29.99 17 52% 510 $15k (exactly $15,295) igelanium games
Galactum Meridian · EA $19.99 14 14% 420 $8.4k (exactly $8,396) Hedra Games
Periphery Online $4.99 50 72% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Aleksandr Nagaev
HARD VOID · EA $19.99 8 100% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) jejoxdev
Носковраздор $0.99 136 51% 4.1k $4.0k (exactly $4,039) BMBK Games
Scionide · EA $14.99 7 71% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) SYONIX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.