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Should I ship a Female-Led Walking Simulator?
Walking Simulator + Female Protagonist
Of 203 developers who shipped a Female-Led Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 274 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×546 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 274 games are announced against 126 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $538 (exactly $538) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $12,704) |
| Top 5% | $260k (exactly $259,540) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 203 |
| Released games | 588 |
| Announced | 274 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Walking Simulator
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Female Protagonist
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Walking Simulator; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Simulation
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 52,168 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 274 games are announced against 126 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Walking Simulator with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WarFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + ThrillerFair
- + MusicFair
- + SupernaturalFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + NoirFair
Comparable games
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016 · $263M 
A Plague Tale: Innocence 2019 · $76M 
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice 2017 · $60M 
GRIS 2018 · $38M 
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017 · $28M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition | older | $39.99 | 219,271 94% | 6.6M | $263M (exactly $263,059,419) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | A Plague Tale: Innocence | older | $39.99 | 63,166 93% | 1.9M | $76M (exactly $75,780,250) | Asobo Studio |
| | Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice | older | $29.99 | 66,788 90% | 2.0M | $60M (exactly $60,089,164) | Ninja Theory |
| | GRIS | older | $14.99 | 83,857 96% | 2.5M | $38M (exactly $37,710,493) | Nomada Studio |
| | What Remains of Edith Finch | older | $19.99 | 47,036 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,207,489) | Giant Sparrow |
 | To the Moon | older | $9.99 | 69,549 95% | 2.1M | $21M (exactly $20,843,835) | Freebird Games |
 | Life is Strange: Before the Storm | older | $16.99 | 33,504 93% | 1.0M | $17M (exactly $17,076,989) | Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Fer… (Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Cairn | $29.99 | 18,224 94% | 547k | $16M (exactly $16,396,133) | The Game Bakers | |
 | Hellblade II: Senua’s Saga | older | $49.99 | 9,381 86% | 281k | $14M (exactly $14,068,686) | Ninja Theory |
 | The Medium | older | $49.99 | 7,485 88% | 225k | $11M (exactly $11,225,254) | Bloober Team |
 | Echoes of Aincrad | $69.99 | 4,108 47% | 123k | $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) | Game Studio Inc. | |
 | Neva | $19.99 | 9,343 93% | 280k | $5.6M (exactly $5,602,997) | Nomada Studio | |
 | Mixtape | $19.99 | 7,365 87% | 221k | $4.4M (exactly $4,416,790) | Beethoven and Dinosaur | |
 | A Quiet Place: The Road Ahead | $29.99 | 2,331 74% | 70k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,201) | Stormind Games | |
 | Copycat | $14.99 | 4,611 89% | 138k | $2.1M (exactly $2,073,567) | Spoonful Of Wonder | |
 | OPUS: Prism Peak | $24.99 | 1,071 92% | 32k | $803k (exactly $802,929) | SIGONO INC. | |
 | Dimhaven - The Lost Source | $25.99 | 945 87% | 28k | $737k (exactly $736,816) | Zadbox Entertainment | |
 | Light Up The Town | $14.99 | 715 95% | 21k | $322k (exactly $321,536) | Meadow Studios | |
 | The Cabin Factory | $2.99 | 3,455 90% | 104k | $310k (exactly $309,914) | International Cat Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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