Do I ship it?

GamesOn-Rails ShooterOn-Rails Shooter + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led On-Rails Shooter?

On-Rails Shooter + Female Protagonist

Only 12 developers shipped a Female-Led On-Rails Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, TurretGirls, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $12k against a market of $480. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 25.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 15 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
On-Rails Shooter + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $20k → $598 → $384k → $65k → $13k
Outcomes for On-Rails Shooter + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Median $12k (exactly $12,288)
Top 25% $167k (exactly $167,316)
Top 5% $564k (exactly $564,035)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 39
Announced 15
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

On-Rails Shooter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
On-Rails Shooter
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,934 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.7k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.7k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

On-Rails Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CyberpunkFair12 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  2. + Tower DefenseFair11 devs · median $899 · 12 announced
  3. + SimulationFair14 devs · median $718 · 13 announced
  4. + Bullet TimeLong shot8 devs · median $359 · 8 announced
  5. + RoguelitePoor odds15 devs · median $4.3k · 22 announced
  6. + Bullet HellPoor odds25 devs · median $3.2k · 47 announced
  7. + FuturisticPoor odds18 devs · median $3.2k · 22 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds10 devs · median $3.2k · 8 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds12 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds10 devs · median $2.7k · 15 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 17 announced
  12. + FantasyPoor odds12 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced

All 45 pairs on the On-Rails Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gal*Gun 2 older $29.99 2,094 83% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,883,972) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
TurretGirls $9.99 1,882 85% 56k $564k (exactly $564,035) NANAIRO ENTERPRISE
CYGNI: All Guns Blazing older $29.99 448 60% 13k $403k (exactly $403,066) KeelWorks
Mirage Feathers older $4.99 2,566 98% 77k $384k (exactly $384,130) oyasumi Workshop
Ex-Zodiac · EA older $11.99 958 93% 29k $345k (exactly $344,593) MNKY
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Wild Guns Reloaded older $14.99 435 88% 13k $196k (exactly $195,620) NatsumeAtari
ROGUE FLIGHT $19.99 279 96% 8.4k $167k (exactly $167,316) Truant Pixel, LLC
Dimension Tripper Neptune: TOP NEP older $4.99 669 95% 20k $100k (exactly $100,149) Idea Factory, Frontier Works, tiny cact… (Idea Factory, Frontier Works, tiny cactus studio, WSS playground)
Air Twister older $24.99 101 93% 3.0k $76k (exactly $75,720) YS NET
閃攻機人アスラ - ASURA THE STRIKER - $14.99 145 91% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) LeftOver
Candy Rangers $14.99 30 86% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) Mechano
THE GIRL FROM GUNMA Kai  群馬県から来た少女・改 $9.99 41 97% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) 株式会社ヒューガ HUGA Inc.
Cat Girl Without Salad: Amuse-Bouche $7.99 28 82% 840 $6.7k (exactly $6,712) WayForward
Moushooter $12.99 15 80% 450 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Twins Halo
Moor Rail $9.99 19 78% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) PLAY Mephistowaltz
PopSlinger Vol. 2 - Loveless $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Funky Can Creative

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.